Another activity we have engaged in is an attempt at tracking runaway slaves and maroons identified in the colonial newspaper, Affiches américaines, already collected in the excellent Le marronage dans le monde atlantique project. We focused on the Nupe, Hausa and Bariba populations as groups who, living to the north of the Oyo state, were probably the bulk of the captives from the "Central Sudan" who were sold into slavery in Saint-Domingue. Unfortunately, we could not include the Fulani or Poulard in our calculations, since it is impossible to determine how many of the Fulani in Saint-Domingue reached the Caribbean from the Bight of Benin. However, it is likely that at least some of the Fulani or "Poulards" in Saint Domingue arrived from the north of Oyo, too.
In addition, we also included the "Malais" or "Malez" and "Bernon" captives who appear in the runaway notices. The latter group, hailing from Borno, to the northeast of Oyo, were "infinitely rare" in the colony of Saint Domingue. Nonetheless, a few did reach the hell of colonial Haiti, likely via the Bight of Benin. The former group, however, present more difficulties. According to early 18th century sources such as the journal of the Chevalier des Marchais, "Malais" traders had already been traveling to Ouidah by 1704. His sometimes vague understanding of their origins suggests they were Muslim traders from a distant land northeast of Allada, possibly Hausaland or Borno. Since they allegedly followed certain Islamic dietary restrictions, used the Arabic language, wore robes of blue or white, and favored long beards, we are guessing the "Malais" traders hailed from Hausaland or a nearby region. The captives they sold on the Slave Coast, however, were probably from neighboring groups and other nearby regions, which means the "Malais" captives in Saint Domingue were likely some northern group. Alternatively, the "Malais" could also have been Muslim Yoruba, but that seems less likely for the 18th century.
Overall, we found about 134 unambiguous cases of slaves from areas north of Oyo who engaged in marronage in Saint-Domingue during the years 1766-1790. While the total population of Bariba, Hausa, Nupe, Borno, and "Malais" captives imported in the colony is unknown, we believe Geggus's data on slave ethnicities in the period 1727-1797 may be illustrative of general patterns. In his survey, which is not meant to be a complete total for the various nations, he calculated 532 Nupe, Bariba and Hausa in Saint-Domingue. This number, 532, is out of a total sample of 13,334 slaves, suggesting Nupe, Hausa and Bariba represented nearly 4% of the enslaved population. Naturally, we need further data, particularly in light of evidence for the early appearance of Bariba and Nupe captives in Saint Domingue in the 1710s and 1730s, and, perhaps, Hausa before the 1760s. But, if we use 4% as a very rough estimate for the number of captives from the lands north of Oyo, perhaps 4% of total slave population on the eve of the Haitian Revolution were from the "Central Sudan" and nearby regions north of Oyo. This would give astronomically high figures, but suggest around 20,000 captives were possibly from that aforementioned region, over half Hausa.
Another possible approach, though still highly flawed, is to use rough estimates for total population of a "nation" by using the general rate of marronage. If, as Eddins indicates, 12,857 individual slave runaways appeared in the colonial newspaper, one could divide that by a rough estimate for the total slave population in 1789 or 1790. Alternatively, one could take that rough rate of marronage and apply it to the total period of colonial rule, dividing it by the estimated 800,000 captives brought to Saint-Domingue. Of course, one would have to take into consideration slave mortality rates and total imports for the period from 1766-1790, which we lack sufficient sources and data to do. Some slaves may have also appeared more frequently as maroons based on their occupation and other factors, too, which can skew results. Consequently, the estimates are likely too high or too low in some cases. Nonetheless, it is probably a more accurate estimate than our attempt to use the numbers from Geggus's survey covering the years 1727-1797. Using the marronage escape rate, calculated by dividing 12,857 by a rough estimate of a total of 500,000 slaves in 1790/91, then about 2.57% of all slaves could be runaways. If, say, the Hausa runaways, which we enumerated to be 83 (possibly 84) individuals from 1766-1790, is our base, then we can estimate a total Hausa population based on the rough estimate that 2.57% of Hausas imported were maroons. Of course, it could have been higher or lower depending on specific conditions that shape the chances of marronage, but if we assume that 83 Hausas were 2.57% of the total Hausa population imported into the colony, based on the rough figure of 500,000 slaves in 1790, then about 3230 Hausas were imported into the colony. If one uses the figure of 800,000 as a rough estimate for total slave imports in Saint Domingue, and assume the Hausa proportion of the maroons (12,857) was comparable or adequate for the entire colonial era, then we would use the maroon rate of 1.607% (calculated by dividing 12857 by 800,000). The Hausa proportion would then increase to 5165, of which it is very likely high mortality rates significantly reduced. Applying this to our total sample of "Central Sudan" captives, 134, would bring us to an estimate ranging from 5211 to 8338. Again, high mortality rates would have reduced the number of survivors.
Overall, assuming these captives arrived on French slave ships, they would represent about 3.4% to 5.4% of African captives purchased from the Bight of Benin in Saint-Domingue (based on Geggus's figures in "The French Slave Trade: An Overview." Those figures are actually plausible. Moreover, these lower figures seem more likely based on the data. If, we were to assume 4% of the captives of Saint Domingue were Nupe, Hausa, and Bariba, based on Geggus's survey of slave nations and gender ratios from 1727-1797, then their totals could have ranged from perhaps as many as 19,949 to 31,918. That would significantly boost their proportion in the "Bight of Benin" captives in Saint-Domingue, from about 13% to nearly 21%, a figure that seems far too high.
Of course, high mortality rates and the lack of adequate early data makes all of this very speculative. Our method requires one to assume the proportion of, say, Hausa slaves, in the maroon population was proportional to the total slave population's share of Hausa. Yet slaveholders held certain stereotypes about which "nations" were best for specific occupations, and additional factors such as location, type of plantation and urban versus rural must have shaped actual rates of marronage (at least, those reported in the press). So, the aforementioned estimates are only useful as very broad ranges that might provide a general idea. But it is interesting to note, nonetheless, that the "Hausa" significantly outnumbered other groups in Geggus's survey data from the areas north of Oyo. The Taqua or Tapa (Nupe) came second at 161, while there were only 84 Bariba. The Hausa appear more frequently as runaways, too, representing nearly 62% of the reported maroons from this region. It is possible that their higher rate of marronage was both due to a more distorted sex ratio as well as their higher numbers. If this is the case, then the Hausa may not have significantly outnumbered the Nupe and Bariba as our data seems to suggest.